The Spring Market Is Starting to Mean Business

Pending sales just hit their strongest weekly reading since 2022. Here is what the data says about where things are headed.

Source: Mike Simonson, Chief Economist | Week of April 28, 2026

After a slower, more volatile March, the housing market is beginning to show what it is capable of. New listings, inventory, and pending home sales all posted meaningful gains this week. Mortgage rates have eased from their recent highs, equity markets have strengthened, and buyers appear to be stepping back in with purpose.

The timing matters too. Without a late April holiday disrupting the calendar, this year's spring season is ramping more cleanly than last year, and the data is starting to reflect that.

The Signal That Matters Most

The headline number this week is pending home sales at 96,000 transactions. That is the strongest single-week reading since 2022, and the first clear sign this year of real demand momentum. The 4-week rolling average has swung back to growth over last year, a threshold that had not been crossed yet in 2026.

One week does not define a trend. But 96,000 pending sales tells you buyers are ready to move when conditions give them a reason to.

The caveat is important: buyers remain cautious and quick to pull back at any sign of uncertainty. Mortgage rate sensitivity is high. Economic sentiment continues to shape the pace of activity. The momentum is real, but it has not yet proven durable.

Pending Sales: 96,000 | Strongest weekly count since 2022 New Listings: 102,000 | Most sellers in a single week since 2022 Active Inventory: 990,000 | +2.8% week over week, +4% year over year Median List Price: $449,000 | ~1% below last year

More Sellers. Not Enough Inventory.

New listings hit 102,000 this week, the most sellers in a single week since 2022. The 4-week average now sits at 92,000 per week, slightly ahead of last year. Supply is moving in the right direction, though the national inventory deficit remains significant. At 990,000 active homes, we are still approximately 12% below 2019 levels.

The regional breakdown tells the more interesting story. New Jersey and Connecticut both posted over 10% inventory growth this week, welcome relief for Northeast buyers who have been starved of supply for years. Meanwhile Florida came in essentially flat and Texas grew just 1.7%. The Sun Belt, after years of elevated construction activity, is holding steady while the Northeast finally starts to loosen.

Nationally, supply is improving but not recovered. The gap between where inventory is today and where it needs to be to feel like a balanced market remains meaningful.

Activity Is Up. Prices Have Not Followed.

The price story has not changed. The median list price of $449,000 sits roughly 1% below last year. The 13-week rolling average at $432,000 is down 1.4% year over year. Price reductions ticked up this week, which is typical for April but worth noting alongside the improved buyer activity.

This divergence is the key tension in the current market. Demand indicators are improving. Pricing indicators continue to point softer. That gap does not close quickly, and sellers who entered the year with aggressive pricing expectations may need to recalibrate. Improved buyer activity does not automatically translate to stronger offers, particularly when affordability remains stretched and rate sensitivity is high.

What to Watch

Pending sales is the metric to track in the coming weeks. If global volatility stays contained and mortgage rates hold near current levels, there is reason to expect this momentum carries forward. If either condition shifts, buyer activity will be the first place it shows up. The market is not fragile, but it is not on firm footing yet either.

What This Means for South Bay Sellers and Buyers

National data sets direction. Local conditions determine outcome. South Bay continues to operate with its own dynamics: limited resale inventory, consistent demand from high-income buyers, and a significant share of transactions that move before reaching the public market.

For sellers, the improving demand signals are relevant context. Pre-market exposure through Private Exclusive and Coming Soon phases positions a listing to capture motivated buyers precisely when activity is ticking up. Days on market is still the number buyers watch, and how a property is launched shapes that number from day one.

For buyers, the window of relative softness in list prices may be shorter than it appears. A single week of strong pending sales does not guarantee a trend, but it is the kind of data point that shifts urgency calculations. Waiting for certainty in a market that rewards preparation rarely works in your favor.

Want to talk through what this means for your move?

Every situation is different. Whether you are thinking about selling this spring or positioning to buy, understanding how the local market is moving alongside the national picture makes all the difference. Reach out for a conversation with no pressure and no agenda.